Chapter 1
Energy
Electricity prices in Poland drop below zero more and more often, and grid operators expect ever more accurate production plans. Since 2022 Leysa has built and run systems that combine market, weather and metering data, so PV farms produce when it pays and plans and forecasts write themselves.
PV farms: monitoring and automated control
Who it’s for: owners and operators of PV farms, companies managing many installations.
The problem: at negative prices production loses money. Switching farms off and on by hand is unreliable, and it is hard to tell a fault from a curtailment ordered by the DSO or TSO.
What Leysa delivers:
- integration with inverter platforms (e.g. Huawei FusionSolar and other SCADA/API systems),
- automatic stopping and restarting of production based on prices (CEN/RCE) and the client’s rules,
- farm state detection: running, stopped manually, likely DSO/TSO curtailment, fault,
- notifications and control from a phone: messenger and push notifications, status checks and farm control with short commands, role-based permissions (owner, administrator, operator),
- a web dashboard with current prices and installation status.
Production forecasts and plans
Who it’s for: renewable generators required to submit production plans to the operator (e.g. via PGB2) and their aggregators.
The problem: plans filled in by hand or from a fixed profile are inaccurate and take time.
What Leysa delivers:
- an individual production model for each farm, calibrated on its production history and weather data,
- forecasts from weather data (1 h, 3 h and 1 day horizons, up to about 20 days) and a climatological profile beyond that,
- automatic XML generation and submission to the operator’s API with status checks,
- filtering faults and shutdowns out of the training data, so the model predicts physically possible output.
1.2.1 Production plans for Polish DSOs: regulations and offer →
Energy market analytics and price forecasts
Who it’s for: generators, energy storage, industrial consumers, traders.
The problem: decisions on production, storage and consumption depend on a price that increasingly falls below zero.
What Leysa delivers:
- a probabilistic 15-minute forecast of the Polish day-ahead price (CEN) for today and tomorrow (issued at 8:00 and 16:00): ranges, not one number,
- the probability of a negative price for every quarter-hour,
- model benchmarks and bespoke analyses.
The model is protected against “future leakage” from revised data, which makes many forecasts look good only on paper.
PV and wind installation analysis
Who it’s for: investors, renewable developers, landowners and owners of existing installations.
What Leysa delivers:
- yield and potential analyses for PV and wind at a location (weather data and physical models),
- parametric generation of project geometry: PV farm layout, turbines, linear infrastructure,
- monthly profitability forecasts: irradiance, wind, energy prices,
- performance analysis of existing installations: production versus model, detection of losses, faults and curtailment,
- profitability analysis in the context of negative prices and grid constraints,
- settlements and reports from metering data (production, self-consumption).